Appalachian St.

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	250.0
Current RPI:	250
Expected SOS:	268
Current SOS:	268
Current Record:	13-18
Expected Record:	13-18
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-8
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	283
Expected OOC SOS:	247

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-18	250.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-16	Iowa St. (144.0)	B12	N	98-104	L	0%
11-17	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	N	86-67	L	0%
11-19	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	N	76-72	W	100%
11-22	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	A	105-99	L	0%
11-25	Davidson (47.0)	A10	H	78-62	W	100%
11-28	VCU (135.0)	A10	A	85-72	L	0%
12-2	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	H	84-61	W	100%
12-4	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	A	72-71	L	0%
12-9	Akron (227.0)	MAC	A	94-89	L	0%
12-16	Ohio St. (20.0)	B10	A	80-67	L	0%
12-20	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	A	86-53	L	0%
12-29	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	66-62	W	100%
12-31	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	80-76	W	100%
1-4	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	A	78-45	L	0%
1-6	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	A	73-79	W	100%
1-11	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	58-71	L	0%
1-13	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	H	59-60	L	0%
1-20	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	A	83-77	L	0%
1-22	Troy (194.0)	SB	A	81-79	L	0%
1-25	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	H	72-67	W	100%
1-27	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	H	88-93	L	0%
2-1	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	A	89-77	L	0%
2-3	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	A	56-59	W	100%
2-10	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	A	66-81	W	100%
2-15	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	H	66-77	L	0%
2-17	Troy (194.0)	SB	H	65-54	W	100%
2-22	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	A	82-79	L	0%
2-24	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	A	67-69	W	100%
3-3	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	H	76-67	W	100%
3-7	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	N	93-64	W	100%
3-9	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	N	84-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Appalachian St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Appalachian St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Appalachian St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Appalachian St.	SB	26.39	26.39	43.70	43.70	-3.32	-3.32
UT Arlington	SB	5.58	5.58	60.00	60.00	1.12	1.12
Little Rock	SB	5.50	5.50	22.22	22.22	-3.06	-3.06
Coastal Carolina	SB	4.14	4.14	40.74	40.74	-0.77	-0.77
Texas St.	SB	4.02	4.02	44.83	44.83	-0.42	-0.42
Arkansas St.	SB	4.00	4.00	25.00	25.00	-2.00	-2.00
Troy	SB	4.00	4.00	44.83	44.83	-0.41	-0.41
South Alabama	SB	3.96	3.96	35.71	35.71	-1.13	-1.13
Georgia St.	SB	2.66	2.66	67.74	67.74	0.94	0.94
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.63	2.63	80.00	80.00	1.58	1.58
Louisiana Monroe	SB	2.58	2.58	48.15	48.15	-0.10	-0.10
Georgia Southern	SB	2.56	2.56	60.00	60.00	0.51	0.51
Akron	MAC	1.69	1.69	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
Western Carolina	SC	1.69	1.69	34.48	34.48	-0.52	-0.52
Hampton	MEAC	1.67	1.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	1.67	1.67	32.26	32.26	-0.59	-0.59
Western Michigan	MAC	1.66	1.66	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Davidson	A10	1.66	1.66	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
VCU	A10	1.64	1.64	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Iowa St.	B12	1.61	1.61	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
James Madison	CAA	1.61	1.61	26.67	26.67	-0.75	-0.75
Ohio St.	B10	1.61	1.61	74.19	74.19	0.78	0.78
UTEP	CUSA	1.61	1.61	34.48	34.48	-0.50	-0.50
UTSA	CUSA	0.21	0.21	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.20	0.20	17.24	17.24	-0.13	-0.13
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.18	0.18	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.16	0.16	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.13	0.13	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Miami OH	MAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	32.35	32.35	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.11	0.11	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
VMI	SC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Tulsa	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00